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雅鲁藏布江米林—加查段沿线暴雨泥石流危险度评价.pdf

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分类号U D C‘、学校代码10616密级学号呈QQ璺Q2Q墨.墨成都理工大学硕士学位论文雅鲁藏布江米林一加查段沿线暴雨泥石流危险度评价金叶指导教师姓名及职称 唐川 教授申请学位级别 硕士 专业名称地质工程论文提交日期 201I 5 论文答辩日期 201鱼.6学位授予单位和日期201 1年06月,本研究成他人已育机构贡献均学本有权保借阅。据库进学学摘要雅鲁藏布江米林_力口查段沿线暴雨泥石流危险度评价作者简介金叶,性别女,1986年3月生,师从成都理工大学唐川教授,2011年06月毕业于成都理工大学地质工程专业,获得工学硕士学位。摘要泥石流是一种突发性的自然灾害现象,是介于滑坡、崩塌等块体运动和携沙水流运动之间的一系列连续流动现象。通常突然爆发,来势凶猛,已成为影响山地经济建设、交通运输不可忽视的一大灾害。我国山区城镇泥石流由于威胁人群数量大,一旦暴发,将造成重大的人员伤亡和经济损失,破坏城市功能,故具有极大的危害性和威胁性,因此必须加强对城镇泥石流灾害的研究、评估、的发生并将灾害的损失减少到最低。为了使泥石流防灾减灾更加科学,更加有合理的组织,因此第一项任务是对灾害的范围、活动程度有一个基本的了解,其次是评估灾害风险的可能性,这就是泥石流危险度评价。它可以准确,快捷地反映目前的形势和泥石流发展趋势,是一项非常重要的非工程措施,为山区泥石流救灾和减灾提供重要的科学依据。本文通过对雅鲁藏布江米林-力口查段的野外调查,分析了该区域的地质环境背景,通过分析典型泥石流的沟谷特征、诱发条件,计算了泥石流的流速、流量和一次泥石流冲出量等,然后运用层次分析法进行泥石流危险度评价。本文通过两层指标来计算泥石流危险度。第一层指标为地形地貌,物源条件,致灾因素以及泥石流冲出量。这四个一级指标下分十个二级指标,它们分别是一次泥石流可能最大冲出量、流域面积、主沟长度、流域相对高差、主沟平均比降、流域切割密度、主沟弯曲系数、松散固体物质储量、泥沙补给长度比、最大24小时降雨量;计算每一级指标的权重后,综合得到影响泥石流危险度的指标的总权重。最终计算沿线147条暴雨泥石流沟的危险度。运用ArcGIS软件,将危险度情况直观的反映在DEM图上。通过分析发现,米林县发育的高度危险泥石流较多,并且与现场调查结果相一致。为了验证该方法的准确性,从这147条泥石流沟中随机选取12条沟,运用刘希林、唐川等提出的泥石流危险度评价方法的简化方法进行验证,该方法结果与本文提出模型方法结果吻合率良好,具有一定的可行性。关键词层次分析法雅鲁藏布江权重危险度评价which threaten the economy contraction and transportation in mountain area.It iS SOnecessary to reinforce the research and assessment to the great hazard and threateningof debris flows which threaten the towns in china because a huge of people are underthe threat of debris,potential significant casualties and economic 10SS would cansedand city functions would damaged to reduce the loss to a minimum.The mostimportant duty which for organize and implement the mitigation and disasterprevention engineering scientificly and rationally is disaster risk assessment whichrisk a basic recognization and assessment to the possibility,threatening hazard rangeand harmful levels.So.the activities and development trends Can be accurately andquickly responsed by the risk assessment of debris flow which has become a veryimportant non-engineering measure of debris flow prevention.Based on the Yarlung Zangbo River MillingtonJiacha county section of the fieldinvestigation,analysis of the geological setting of the region,by analyzing thecharacteristics of a typical valley debris flow,induced conditions,calculate the velocityofdebris flow,debris flow out ofthe first volume oftra伍C and SO on.and then AHP fordebris flow hazard assessment.In this Paper,two indicators to calculate the risk ofdebris flow.Indicators ofthe first layer oftopography,source conditions,causal factorsand the amount of debris out.Under the four subten secondlevel indicators index.which is a debris flow areprobablythe largest amount out of the drainage area,mainchannel length,basin relative height,the average main channel slope,watershed cutdensity,the main Groove bending coefficient,loose solid material storage,sedimentsupply length ratio,the maximum 24-hour rainfall;calculate index weights for eachlevel,the integrated impact of debris flow hazard by the total weight of the indicators.Along the 147 flnal calculation of the risk of storm debris flow.The use of ArcGISsoftware,the intuitive risk situation is reflected in the DEM map.It iS found that,Mainling County high risk of development of more landslides,and is consistent withthe field investigation.AbstractIn order to verify the accuracy of the ,from 1 47 randomly selected debrisflow channel 1 2,the use of Liu Xilin,TANG Chuan and other debris proposed asimplified of risk assessment s,this results and the results ofthis modeling approach proposed agreement Rate good,is feasible.KeywordsAHP Yarlung Zangbo River Weight hazard assessment’。。’’。。’1。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。’’o●●■■■■■■■■■■一目 录目 录目 录..........i第1.11.21.3第2.12.22.32.42.52.62.7第3.1第目 录4.1评价方法比选。4.2评价方法介绍4.2.1评价思路4.2.2计算步骤4.2.3原理。4.3评价模型的确定。4.3.1评价因素的选取4.3.2层次分析法确定权重4.3.3权重讨论4.3.4泥石流危险度评价模型的确定第5章基于层次分析的单沟泥石流危险度评价。5.1单沟泥石流基础数据。5.2评判结果统计..345.3评判结果分析..345.4结果验证..46第6章结论.49致谢..51参考文献.52
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